The World Bank has lowered its forecast for global economic growth in 2025 to 2.3%, down from 2.7% projected in January, marking the weakest growth rate in 17 years—excluding the recession years of 2009 and 2020. For 2026, the growth forecast was also revised down to 2.4%, below the previous estimate of 2.7%.
The Bank attributed this slowdown to a sharp rise in trade barriers and the impact of a highly uncertain global political environment, both of which are weighing on economic activity and investment flows. It also noted that if trade disputes are resolved through agreements that cut tariffs in half—compared to their levels in late May 2025—global growth could increase by about 0.2 percentage points on average over 2025 and 2026.
Among major economies, the forecast for U.S. GDP growth in 2025 was reduced to 1.4% from 2.3%, while the outlook for China remained unchanged at 4.5%. The Eurozone and Japan are each expected to grow by just 0.7%, after forecast downgrades of 0.3 and 0.5 percentage points, respectively.
In emerging markets, India’s growth is now projected at 6.3%, down from 6.7%, while Mexico saw the sharpest revision, with growth expected to be just 0.2%, down from 1.5%.
These figures reflect growing concerns about the future of the global economy amid geopolitical tensions and rising trade protectionism, prompting policymakers to reconsider how to support stability and growth in the coming years.
