Brent crude futures fell significantly on Tuesday, settling at $64.5 per barrel, as markets reacted to speculation over a potential increase in supply from the OPEC+ alliance. The decline comes ahead of a crucial meeting scheduled for later this week, with reports indicating a possible output hike of 411,000 barrels per day starting in July.
Earlier this month, OPEC+ had agreed to accelerate oil production increases for the second consecutive month in June, as part of efforts to balance the market amid a fragile global recovery and ongoing supply-demand imbalances.
Despite the drop, losses were partially contained following U.S. President Donald Trump’s announcement to extend trade talks with the European Union until July 9, easing concerns about new tariffs that could have dampened global fuel demand.
On the other hand, geopolitical tensions intensified as Iran refused to suspend uranium enrichment as part of nuclear negotiations with the United States, despite Trump’s earlier hints that a deal might be imminent. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian also stated that the country “will be fine” even if both sides fail to reach an agreement.
This standoff increases the likelihood of continued economic sanctions on Iran, which would restrict the country’s oil exports and provide short-term support to crude prices.
Oil markets remain in a state of anticipation ahead of the upcoming OPEC+ meeting, caught between downward pressure from potential supply increases and upward momentum driven by geopolitical developments, especially concerning Iran. As a result, price volatility is expected to intensify in the coming days, depending on production policy outcomes and international developments.
